I have an apology for all of you who have been patiently waiting the next installment of "The Debunkers," the weekly fantasy-football podcast featuring Brad Rutta and myself. We were felled by a combination of illness and technical malfunctions, meaning that this week's cast could not possibly be accomplished in time for the firset games this week. Again, I apologizee, and offer in humble supplication my script for this week, which will get you some of the way there.
what makes this week's problems doubly painful is the fact that I had prepared a special mashup of Patsy Cline and Jim Mora Sr. for your listening pleasure. That at least will hold until next week.
My recommendation, lest you wonder: Play Patriots. Even if you don't have them.
And now, without further ado, the script:
Hey, and welcome one more time to the oft-imitated but never duplicated Debunkers, the fantasy-football podcasters who dare to ask the question, “Will Derek Anderson be the next Cardinals quarterback to wind up on a reality show, this time, 'Whose Quarterback Job Is It Anyway?'” I am Kit Kiefer, founding editor of Fantasy Sports magazine and little else, and over there is professional poker player and part-time thesis writer Brad Rutta, and Brad, how is that thesis coming along?
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You know, Brad, something very strange happened this past Sunday, and you know what that is?
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Well, let me tell you. The very strange thing that happened this past Sunday is – are you ready for this? – I was right.
That doesn’t happen much I know, but I was right. And here’s how I was right. You remember last week when we were talking about Vernon Davis and Troy Smith, I said that for Vernon Davis to play a role in this offense he has to be sent further down the field because Troy Smith is not a good intermediate-range passer and he does not as a rule look for his tight end, and you know what? That’s exactly what the ‘Niners did with Vernon Davis. I went to the game and made a point of watching Davis. They sent him further down the field, they lined him up off the ball standing up, and he had a great day – the day that all those Vernon Davis owners were hoping he’d have had a whole lot sooner.
Now, there a couple of things I want to talk about with this. First, Vernon Davis’ success came at the expense of Michael Crabtree, who had three catches for 45 yards. Next, all you ‘Niner fans who haven’t yet realized this need to know that one of the reasons Troy Smith does not throw the ball down the middle and does not throw the ball off the bootleg is that he’s really bad at it. Troy Smith is a collection of quarterback parts as opposed to a true quarterback. And then finally, if I am of one brainwave-length with one of the most antediluvian offenses in football I don’t know what that says. I mean, I’d much rather be dead-on with an offense like the Patriots.
So now we have Alex Smith back at the helm, and Smith is an intermediate-range passer, though still no more effective at it than Troy Smith is at throwing the long ball, so what does that mean? Based on everything I saw last week and what I know of the ‘Niner offense, I’d say play Davis, sit Crabtree if you can, and sit both Westbrook and Anthony Dixon. I don’t see enough there to merit playing time.
Speaking of the Patriots, what do you think? Is what we saw from the Patriot offense against the Jets on Monday night what we’re going to see from the Patriots offense the rest of the season?
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Elsewhere, it finally seems like some of the running backs that people expected would have good seasons are starting to have those seasons. We’re talking about Adrian Peterson, Maurice Jones-Drew, Michael Turner who you mentioned earlier, and Brandon Jacobs. Is this what we can expect from these guys the rest of the way down the stretch – and is this that running time of year, when teams try to run the ball more?
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Oh, and by the way, I should point out that teams do not run the ball more the last month of the season, which makes sense when you think about it. A team’s offense is its offense, within parameters. They may be better at running the ball from one week to the next, but their basic underlying philosophy doesn’t change as much as they’d like you to believe. Just because a team rolls up 207 yards rushing against the Indianapolis Colts does not make them a running team, the same way that rolling up 70 yards rushing against the Steelers does not not make them a rushing team. Football teams do what they do within the philosophy of their offense with the goal in mind of maximizing their return on the number of offensive plays they have. That can be dictated by the weather or the opponent, but it is not dictated by the time of year.
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Brad: Is Sydney Rice the man in Minneapolis again? He went from two points to 30 in one week. How does the QB situation change the dynamics of his role. Does Rice have the chance to outperform Moss for the year in the last 4 games of the season? He's roughly 50 fantasy points behind.
I’d rather have Rice, for a simple reason. The Titans don’t know how to use Randy Moss. That’s apparent from last week’s game. They haven’t yet figured out how he figures in an offense that’s already in turmoil. Oh, and by the way, can we please put to bed the idea that adding a top-shelf gimme-the-ball kind of receiver makes a stud running back even studier? It didn’t happen for Adrian Peterson in Minnesota when Moss arrives, it didn’t happen in New York when Santonio Holmes got healthy, and it hasn’t happened in Tennessee. That doesn’t mean it can’t happen – I think back to Herman Moore with the Lions when Barry Sanders was the guy – but it’s just as likely to fail as it is to succeed.
But back to Rice. Last game he was in I believe the X slot in the Vikings’ offense where he was so successful last year, and he had a great game. He’s back in his comfort zone with whatever QB is throwing to him, and the Vikings know what they have and how to use him. Rice is going to have more points than Moss because he’s always been in a useful place when he’s been on the field.
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Now, I have one for you. Let’s suppose Dez Bryant is on your team. Happy happy joy joy – right? But now he breaks his ankle. Your league plays three wide receivers and for whatever reason your best backup wide receiver is Chansi Stuckey. And believe it or not, you’re in the playoff hunt. Who do you pick up at this late date? Answer that question, and then we’ll go around the positions and name our All-Stopgap Team.
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My wide receiver? Robert Meachem. Available in our league, playing for a productive offense. Hey, it’s always a crapshoot with those New Orleans wide receivers, but the good news is they all get some action – just not always as much action as you’d like. Otherwise available in our league, Roy Williams. Dez Bryant’s gone and Williams has always thought of himself as Dez Bryant Sr.
Running back?
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You like Michael Bush and Tashard Choice, my guy is … no one. Those are the two guys. John Kuhn if you like cheap touchdowns. That’s it.
Quarterback?
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Well, Ryan Fitzpatrick is still out there in our league. So, surprisingly, is David Garrard. You know, sometimes the best passing performances come when you don’t have to throw, and that’s the situation Garrard finds himself in. He has people he likes throwing to in Sims-Walker, Mike Thomas, and Marcedes Lewis, and you know about the running game. So my vote right now is for Garrard over Fitzpatrick – and if I said the exact opposite last week, well – that was last week.
Tight end?
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Still a lot of depth out there, and that includes Rob Gronkowski. I really like the Patriots down the stretch, and I really like Gronkowski against some of the teams the Pats will be facing. I know in some leagues there are guys like Jermaine Gresham available, but I really like Gronkowski.
Defense?
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The Atlanta defense is still available in many leagues, and with some favorable matchups down the stretch, they’re my pick.
Finally, Kicker?
If you can get Josh Brown down the stretch, he’s my choice. They have a lot of dome games left, and I like kickers in domes at this time of year.
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In many leagues it might be time to evaluate keepers for next year. Now we don't have this option, however, we should discuss. So give me a list of potential keepers at each position.
Running back: Peyton Hillis. If you’re in a bidding league – and I know not many of you are – you’re probably not into Hillis for a huge amount. So you can afford to pay any upcharge (if your league works that way) to keep him around. One note on Hillis: next year’s role for Hillis may be colored by the presence of Montarrio Hardesty, who had a very good preseason before going down with an injury. So I would guess that Hillis will put up around 80 percent of this year’s numbers, which is still plenty good. Lagarrette Blount and Arian Foster are keepers for the same reason, with slightly different particulars.
Wide Receiver: Steve Johnson. This is a slightly more tricky category because the teams with low-cost breakout receivers are in a state of flux. I went with Johnson because Buffalo has so many other needs – both lines as well as linebacker – that my hunch is that they’ll leave the running backs and wide receivers alone. If they do that Johnson is the top guy and Lee Evans is No. 2, much like the situation with Greg Jennings and Donald Driver in Green Bay.
Tight end: Brandon Pettigrew. Undrafted in many leagues and in the best situation to garner catches and TDs over time.
Quarterback: Sam Bradford. I know he was the No. 1 pick in the NFL draft but went undrafted in many leagues because of concerns about his supporting cast. Let me tell you: the supporting cast is not bad already, and next year Donnie Avery comes back. Right now I would rather have Sam Bradford than any other young quarterback in football. Yeah, even Tim Tebow.
Brad: Give me your receiver of choice of these situations:
1. Roy Williams - Dez out with injury, is Roy a pick-up and play going into the playoffs. Roy Williams is a good play for someone, but not for me. I am so over Roy Williams. We talked about this earlier, but he’s a very good stopgap. He’s nothing more.
Chad Ochocinco - Has the TO show taken over OCNN? Would you play Ocho over Roy, Moss, or Kenny Britt?
Ocho is going to get four catches a game the rest of the way with 50 yards a game and no more than two TDs. Is that better than the three guys you mentioned? It’s better than Moss, certainly, and probably better than Roy Williams and Kenny Britt. So yeah, you’d rather play Ocho over those guys if that’s your choice. But Ocho over Deion Branch, Donald Driver, Mike Thomas, even Jacoby Ford? Not in my book.
How do the tight races for division championships and playoff berths impact fantasy playoffs? No teams beside the Pats have a real concern here in my opinion
You look at the division races, and the team with the largest lead is the Kansas City Chiefs. No matter what that team does to rest its key players for the playoffs, it’s not going to have a major impact on fantasy football the way the Colts had an impact last year when they shut down Peyton Manning. Otherwise, the plethora of close races means more key players playing hard all the way to the end, which is good for the fantasy playoffs. After all, the playoffs should be about the best roster winning, not the roster with the most players still playing the entire game.
Okay, let’s talk about this week. Who do you like?
Showing posts with label fantasy football. Show all posts
Showing posts with label fantasy football. Show all posts
Thursday, December 9, 2010
Wednesday, November 17, 2010
Shame On The Debunkers
The long-awaited (since last week, anyway) fourth episode of "The Debunkers," the fantasy-football podcast featuring myself and Brad Rutta, is now available at http://www.ourmedia.org/ia/details/KitKieferandBradRuttaDebunkers_4__ShameOnTheDebunkers_/.
You'll find out why it's titled "Shame on the Debunkers" fast enough. And sorry about the coughing. It's that time of year.
You'll find out why it's titled "Shame on the Debunkers" fast enough. And sorry about the coughing. It's that time of year.
Thursday, November 11, 2010
Tell Me More, Tell Me More
If the thrill of seeing "Football With 1 Stick Gum" on the printed ... uh, screen is not enough stimulation for your cerebral cortex, check out the fantasy-football podcast featuring F1SG creator Kit Kiefer and his colleague Brad Rutta. The latest installment is available here: http://bit.ly/bt1P5k
If you play fantasy football this may be the most important 35 minutes you spend all week. Of course, if you play fantasy football that's not saying much.
If you play fantasy football this may be the most important 35 minutes you spend all week. Of course, if you play fantasy football that's not saying much.
Friday, August 27, 2010
Shootout At The Fantasy Factory
I'll level with you: There is an ulterior motive to this, beyond the undeniable thrill of laying unadulterated smart-aleck comments on a fawning public. It's fantasy football.
The underlying premise of much of Football with 1 Stick Gum is that professional football teams have tendencies, and these tendencies cannot change overnight. Even in the age of free agency teams cannot simply be swapped out, the way you'd pop out Madden 9 and pop in Madden 10. Teams cannot transform; they can only evolve.
Furthermore, there are only so many plays that can be run in a game, and only so many yards that can be gained in a season. Yards gained in the NFL have increased season over season, but slowly. There has never been one season where everything simply exploded beyond the simple addition of games and teams, not even the post-AAFC and post-AFL merger years. It's not really possible. The laws of time and effort take over, and everything, as always, regresses to the mean.
As an aside, this tendency is even more pronounced the further down the football chain you travel. In the early ‘80s the University of Wisconsin hired Don Morton as its head coach. Morton made his reputation at the University of Tulsa as the progenitor of the veer offense, a sort of half-assed wishbone with a couple of pass plays. Morton came to Madison and tried to install the veer using the athletes who were running the Badgers’ patented crummy pro-style offense. It was enough to make the body-passers, the pot-smokers and the other miscellaneous faithful moon for the days of Mike “The Polish Rifle” Kalasmiki.
At that time I was moonlighting as a color commentator for the radio broadcasts of Wisconsin high-school football powerhouse D.C. Everest. They ran the veer too, and ran bubble screens and run-‘n’-shoot passes and plays that would never have showed up on Don Morton’s board if he had stayed at Madison a millennium.
The difference? The veer was D.C. Everest’s system, not the coach’s system. In Madison, the veer was Don Morton’s system, not Wisconsin’s system. The Badger players were the wrong ones to run the plays, and the plays were the wrong plays to boot. Wisconsin not only couldn’t flip a switch over to a new system, but the new system was a total botch. (Something to think about, Fighting Irish fans.)
What does this have to do with fantasy football? Basically, it means that everything the so-called experts think is special really isn't as special as they'd have you believe. If you read the magazines – and I've read a scad-load – you'd think that every player in the league is going to do 10 percent better than he did last year. And then there are the rookies – my Gawd, the rookies!
Well, it's bunk. It's not statistically possible. There are only so many plays in a game and yards in a season, there are only so many opportunities, and no single player or coach is capable of producing sea change overnight. Sam Bradford? Puh-leeze. No one to throw to, no line to protect him, and the game is going to look faster to him than Michael Phelps in a cheat suit. Mike Martz in Chicago? Martz has Johnny Knox, who does not equal Isaac Bruce, a couple of possession receivers who together don't add up to Ricky Proehl, a decent tight end that in the Martz scheme of things is as useful as a backup long snapper, and Jay Cutler, who resembles Kurt Warner the same way that Brett Favre resembles Bart Starr. There is no Torry Holt and no Marshall Faulk, and Soldier Field in December does not offer the same cushy consistency of the TWA Dome.
The way this game works is that players are slotted into roles, and it's those roles, not the players in them, that matter. The No. 1 receiver lines up here and does this, and ultimately it matters little whether it's Greg Jennings or Donald Driver.
The fantasy disconnect is that when you draft Greg Jennings you're not really drafting Greg Jennings. You're drafting the Packers' No. 1 receiver. And while roles don't change much over the course of the season, the players in those roles can, either through injury or performance. The Jets' No. 1 running back will be good for a ton of fantasy points this year, but at what point does that position gravitate from Ladanian Tomlinson to Shonn Greene?
All right, so here’s the first rule of drafting fantasy football players: Draft roles, not players. If the St. Louis Rams are going to be primarily a running team in 2010 – which they will – and you draft Steven Jackson, it’s not a bad idea to draft his backup as well. If you draft Tomlinson, save room to grab Greene. If things are really in a state of flux – read Buffalo – either save room for three RBs from one team or move on to a more settled situation. Besides, if you’re a fantasy-footballer who feels his team will not be complete without a Buffalo running back you’re beyond this column’s ability to help.
Second, realize that every gain has to be matched with a loss somewhere. Okay, so Jay Cutler throws for 10 percent more yards in 2010. He throws on more downs, which means fewer rushing opportunities for Matt Forte and Garrett Wolfe, and fewer rushing yards, more than likely. Since the Bears defense is projected to be worse than last year, the Bears will probably not gain any offensive opportunities. Therefore, it is extremely unlikely that Jay Cutler will pass for 10 percent more yards and Bears running backs will rush for 10 percent more yards.
Here’s another way of approaching the same question. Was Adrian Peterson a worse running back after Brett Favre’s arrival than he was before? Of course not, that fumbling thing aside. However, there were fewer situations in which handing the ball to Adrian Peterson was the No. 1 option. And what of all those pundits who figured that Brett Favre’s arrival would make Peterson even better, because it would keep the defenses honest? They forgot three immutable facts: 1) there are only so many plays to go around, 2) keeping the defenses honest also means keeping the offenses honest, and 3) Brett Favre is an incorrigible ball-hog.
Saying that Favre and Peterson could both bump their numbers proportionally by playing together would be like saying that Dwayne Wade, Chris Bosh and LeBron James will all increase their scoring averages now that they’re Heats, and no one is saying that. Instead, they’re laying bets on whose average will suffer most. Anyone with a milligram of hoops sense knows that there can be only so many trips down the court in a basketball game, and there’s only one ball. Football thinkers would be wise to pay attention.
This is the long way ‘round to the key question: Which roles will produce the most points in 2010? Here are my calculations, based on a specially weighted average of past years and a projection of trends and performances this year. The league gives six points for each touchdown scored, three for each TD pass, and half a point for each reception.
I can tell you this: I ran these same numbers last year and scored the most points of anyone in my league. This is the way football works. Ignore it at your peril.
1 Green Bay QB
2 San Diego QB
3 New Orleans QB
4 Indianapolis QB
5 New England QB
6 Tennessee RB 1
7 Dallas QB
8 Jacksonville RB 1
9 Minnesota QB
10 Houston QB
11 Minnesota RB 1
12 New York J RB 1
13 Miami RB 1
14 Pittsburgh QB
15 Baltimore RB 1
16 New York G QB
17 Philadelphia QB
18 Baltimore QB
19 Arizona QB
20 Carolina RB 1
21 Washington QB
22 San Francisco QB
23 Atlanta QB
24 Denver QB
25 St. Louis RB 1
26 Cincinnati QB
27 Dallas RB 1
28 Indianapolis WR 1
29 San Francisco RB 1
30 Atlanta RB 1
31 Chicago QB
32 Houston WR 1
33 Seattle QB
34 Philadelphia RB 1
35 Jacksonville QB
36 Green Bay RB 1
37 Arizona WR 1
38 Green Bay WR 1
39 Houston RB 1
40 Washington RB 1
41 Kansas City RB 1
42 Seattle RB 1
43 Chicago RB 1
44 Carolina RB 2
45 Philadelphia WR 1
46 Cleveland RB 1
47 San Diego RB 1
48 New England WR 1
49 New England RB 1
50 Detroit RB 1
51 Miami QB
52 Pittsburgh RB 1
53 Kansas City QB
54 New Orleans RB 1
55 Tennessee QB
56 Arizona RB 1
57 Dallas WR 1
58 Detroit WR 1
59 New Orleans WR 1
60 Minnesota WR 1
61 Oakland RB 1
62 Indianapolis WR 2
63 New York G RB 1
64 San Diego WR 1
65 Pittsburgh WR 1
66 Denver RB 1
67 New York J RB 2
68 New York G WR 1
69 New England WR 2
70 Green Bay WR 2
71 Cincinnati RB 1
72 New Orleans WR 2
73 Buffalo RB 1
74 Atlanta WR 1
75 Indianapolis RB 1
76 Tampa Bay RB 2
77 Houston WR 2
78 Cincinnati WR 1
79 San Diego WR 2
80 Detroit QB
81 Pittsburgh WR 2
82 Minnesota WR 2
83 Washington WR 1
84 Baltimore WR 1
85 Kansas City WR 1
86 Carolina QB
87 New Orleans K
88 Buffalo RB 2
89 Oakland QB
90 Dallas WR 2
91 New York G WR 2
92 New York J QB
93 Tampa Bay RB 1
94 Chicago WR 1
95 Detroit RB 2
96 Miami WR 1
97 Denver WR 1
98 Jacksonville WR 1
99 Miami RB 2
100 San Diego K
The underlying premise of much of Football with 1 Stick Gum is that professional football teams have tendencies, and these tendencies cannot change overnight. Even in the age of free agency teams cannot simply be swapped out, the way you'd pop out Madden 9 and pop in Madden 10. Teams cannot transform; they can only evolve.
Furthermore, there are only so many plays that can be run in a game, and only so many yards that can be gained in a season. Yards gained in the NFL have increased season over season, but slowly. There has never been one season where everything simply exploded beyond the simple addition of games and teams, not even the post-AAFC and post-AFL merger years. It's not really possible. The laws of time and effort take over, and everything, as always, regresses to the mean.
As an aside, this tendency is even more pronounced the further down the football chain you travel. In the early ‘80s the University of Wisconsin hired Don Morton as its head coach. Morton made his reputation at the University of Tulsa as the progenitor of the veer offense, a sort of half-assed wishbone with a couple of pass plays. Morton came to Madison and tried to install the veer using the athletes who were running the Badgers’ patented crummy pro-style offense. It was enough to make the body-passers, the pot-smokers and the other miscellaneous faithful moon for the days of Mike “The Polish Rifle” Kalasmiki.
At that time I was moonlighting as a color commentator for the radio broadcasts of Wisconsin high-school football powerhouse D.C. Everest. They ran the veer too, and ran bubble screens and run-‘n’-shoot passes and plays that would never have showed up on Don Morton’s board if he had stayed at Madison a millennium.
The difference? The veer was D.C. Everest’s system, not the coach’s system. In Madison, the veer was Don Morton’s system, not Wisconsin’s system. The Badger players were the wrong ones to run the plays, and the plays were the wrong plays to boot. Wisconsin not only couldn’t flip a switch over to a new system, but the new system was a total botch. (Something to think about, Fighting Irish fans.)
What does this have to do with fantasy football? Basically, it means that everything the so-called experts think is special really isn't as special as they'd have you believe. If you read the magazines – and I've read a scad-load – you'd think that every player in the league is going to do 10 percent better than he did last year. And then there are the rookies – my Gawd, the rookies!
Well, it's bunk. It's not statistically possible. There are only so many plays in a game and yards in a season, there are only so many opportunities, and no single player or coach is capable of producing sea change overnight. Sam Bradford? Puh-leeze. No one to throw to, no line to protect him, and the game is going to look faster to him than Michael Phelps in a cheat suit. Mike Martz in Chicago? Martz has Johnny Knox, who does not equal Isaac Bruce, a couple of possession receivers who together don't add up to Ricky Proehl, a decent tight end that in the Martz scheme of things is as useful as a backup long snapper, and Jay Cutler, who resembles Kurt Warner the same way that Brett Favre resembles Bart Starr. There is no Torry Holt and no Marshall Faulk, and Soldier Field in December does not offer the same cushy consistency of the TWA Dome.
The way this game works is that players are slotted into roles, and it's those roles, not the players in them, that matter. The No. 1 receiver lines up here and does this, and ultimately it matters little whether it's Greg Jennings or Donald Driver.
The fantasy disconnect is that when you draft Greg Jennings you're not really drafting Greg Jennings. You're drafting the Packers' No. 1 receiver. And while roles don't change much over the course of the season, the players in those roles can, either through injury or performance. The Jets' No. 1 running back will be good for a ton of fantasy points this year, but at what point does that position gravitate from Ladanian Tomlinson to Shonn Greene?
All right, so here’s the first rule of drafting fantasy football players: Draft roles, not players. If the St. Louis Rams are going to be primarily a running team in 2010 – which they will – and you draft Steven Jackson, it’s not a bad idea to draft his backup as well. If you draft Tomlinson, save room to grab Greene. If things are really in a state of flux – read Buffalo – either save room for three RBs from one team or move on to a more settled situation. Besides, if you’re a fantasy-footballer who feels his team will not be complete without a Buffalo running back you’re beyond this column’s ability to help.
Second, realize that every gain has to be matched with a loss somewhere. Okay, so Jay Cutler throws for 10 percent more yards in 2010. He throws on more downs, which means fewer rushing opportunities for Matt Forte and Garrett Wolfe, and fewer rushing yards, more than likely. Since the Bears defense is projected to be worse than last year, the Bears will probably not gain any offensive opportunities. Therefore, it is extremely unlikely that Jay Cutler will pass for 10 percent more yards and Bears running backs will rush for 10 percent more yards.
Here’s another way of approaching the same question. Was Adrian Peterson a worse running back after Brett Favre’s arrival than he was before? Of course not, that fumbling thing aside. However, there were fewer situations in which handing the ball to Adrian Peterson was the No. 1 option. And what of all those pundits who figured that Brett Favre’s arrival would make Peterson even better, because it would keep the defenses honest? They forgot three immutable facts: 1) there are only so many plays to go around, 2) keeping the defenses honest also means keeping the offenses honest, and 3) Brett Favre is an incorrigible ball-hog.
Saying that Favre and Peterson could both bump their numbers proportionally by playing together would be like saying that Dwayne Wade, Chris Bosh and LeBron James will all increase their scoring averages now that they’re Heats, and no one is saying that. Instead, they’re laying bets on whose average will suffer most. Anyone with a milligram of hoops sense knows that there can be only so many trips down the court in a basketball game, and there’s only one ball. Football thinkers would be wise to pay attention.
This is the long way ‘round to the key question: Which roles will produce the most points in 2010? Here are my calculations, based on a specially weighted average of past years and a projection of trends and performances this year. The league gives six points for each touchdown scored, three for each TD pass, and half a point for each reception.
I can tell you this: I ran these same numbers last year and scored the most points of anyone in my league. This is the way football works. Ignore it at your peril.
1 Green Bay QB
2 San Diego QB
3 New Orleans QB
4 Indianapolis QB
5 New England QB
6 Tennessee RB 1
7 Dallas QB
8 Jacksonville RB 1
9 Minnesota QB
10 Houston QB
11 Minnesota RB 1
12 New York J RB 1
13 Miami RB 1
14 Pittsburgh QB
15 Baltimore RB 1
16 New York G QB
17 Philadelphia QB
18 Baltimore QB
19 Arizona QB
20 Carolina RB 1
21 Washington QB
22 San Francisco QB
23 Atlanta QB
24 Denver QB
25 St. Louis RB 1
26 Cincinnati QB
27 Dallas RB 1
28 Indianapolis WR 1
29 San Francisco RB 1
30 Atlanta RB 1
31 Chicago QB
32 Houston WR 1
33 Seattle QB
34 Philadelphia RB 1
35 Jacksonville QB
36 Green Bay RB 1
37 Arizona WR 1
38 Green Bay WR 1
39 Houston RB 1
40 Washington RB 1
41 Kansas City RB 1
42 Seattle RB 1
43 Chicago RB 1
44 Carolina RB 2
45 Philadelphia WR 1
46 Cleveland RB 1
47 San Diego RB 1
48 New England WR 1
49 New England RB 1
50 Detroit RB 1
51 Miami QB
52 Pittsburgh RB 1
53 Kansas City QB
54 New Orleans RB 1
55 Tennessee QB
56 Arizona RB 1
57 Dallas WR 1
58 Detroit WR 1
59 New Orleans WR 1
60 Minnesota WR 1
61 Oakland RB 1
62 Indianapolis WR 2
63 New York G RB 1
64 San Diego WR 1
65 Pittsburgh WR 1
66 Denver RB 1
67 New York J RB 2
68 New York G WR 1
69 New England WR 2
70 Green Bay WR 2
71 Cincinnati RB 1
72 New Orleans WR 2
73 Buffalo RB 1
74 Atlanta WR 1
75 Indianapolis RB 1
76 Tampa Bay RB 2
77 Houston WR 2
78 Cincinnati WR 1
79 San Diego WR 2
80 Detroit QB
81 Pittsburgh WR 2
82 Minnesota WR 2
83 Washington WR 1
84 Baltimore WR 1
85 Kansas City WR 1
86 Carolina QB
87 New Orleans K
88 Buffalo RB 2
89 Oakland QB
90 Dallas WR 2
91 New York G WR 2
92 New York J QB
93 Tampa Bay RB 1
94 Chicago WR 1
95 Detroit RB 2
96 Miami WR 1
97 Denver WR 1
98 Jacksonville WR 1
99 Miami RB 2
100 San Diego K
Friday, May 7, 2010
The Thing You Have To Understand About Football Teams, Vol. 2
If you’d rather not expend the effort to scroll down and read Vol. 1, let me do a little catch-up and introduce an analogy I thought of this morning as I was heading to work. Without putting too fine a point on it, I have a day job. I work in health stuff. As health stuff goes, it’s not as engrossing or uplifting as finding a cure for cancer or feeding the hungry. Definitely not feeding the hungry. If those are the Peyton Mannings of health stuff, I work in the Anthony Dilweg Division.
Like most health-stuff companies, we have a corporate mission statement. It goes something like this: “We believe dum-de-dum that people should be healthy dum-de-dum, and so we strive to provide solutions dum-de-dum for their … uh … health.” That statement has always bothered me, and not simply because it positions health as a problem that we could somehow solve. I’ve always believed we should come right out and say, “We want to be the best health-stuff provider on earth, because if we are then everyone wins – providers, organizations, and patients.”
Football teams have mission statements, too, and like my health-stuff mission statement they sound like George W. Bush reading from Finnegan’s Wake. And they’re not published anywhere; you have to divine them from coaches’ and GMs’ statements. That’s a good thing, too, because they almost always sound like this: “We supply offensive and defensive solutions for … uh … offense and defense. We run to set up the pass and pass to set up the run and rush seven and drop eight back in coverage.”
Just like my health-stuff company, football teams are the victims of fuzzy thinking, of a mission as keenly focused as a cassette from Osama bin Laden. Again, what is wrong with saying, “We are the Chicago Bears, and we run the football. We have run the football for 90 years, and we will keep running the football. Our linemen will smash your linemen in the mouth, because that’s what Bulldog Turner did”?
The reason why football teams should come right out and say it is that they come right out and do it. Chicago runs. Arizona throws. There’s really nothing to be gained for a football team to deny its destiny, which is why making Mike Martz the Bears’ O-coordinator is the most ludicrous move since Reagan made James Watt steward of the environment. So Mike Martz is going to install an Astroturf offense on a team that plays in Soldier Field and whose best receiver would be sixth-string in Indianapolis? Is he really? Let’s see it in late November, with the wind screaming off Lake Michigan and Jay Cutler screaming at Devin Hester to catch something for a change, and Mike Martz screaming at Devin Aromashudu because that’s what Mike Martz does. Marty Schottenheimer and Chicago are a match made in heaven, but it’ll never happen because it would require the Bears owning up to their identity, and only successful teams do that.
Believe it or not, there is a use for this rambling prologue: fantasy football. Now, saying something has utility for fantasy football is not like saying something has utility in corralling an oil slick. It won’t help you drill a hole in a plank without splinters or make a flan that doesn’t taste of charcoal. But it is a wet match in that insignificant mildewed corner of the basement storage room of the sports world.
Enough. As a fantasy footballer, if you had the thought after the Rams drafted Sam Bradford, “Yeah, baby! More touches for Donnie Avery!”, put your league entry fee in an envelope and send it to me, because it’ll wind up here eventually. Instead of thinking conventionally (hotshot collegian = hot rookie) you should be moving Steven Jackson five notches up your draft ladder because all the Rams know how to do right now is run, and Sam Bradford will not teach them to pass. This is not Matt Ryan being drafted by the Falcons and given Roddy White on the right, Brian Finneran on the left and Alge Crumpler down the middle. This is a skinny, bum-shouldered QB who feasted like a 12-pound newborn on leaky Ds in the Big 12 being dropped into an offense with one real talent (Jackson), an O-line full of consumptives and a group of receivers with the raw talent of Amy Winehouse and half as much discipline.
How about some others? How about Dez Bryant to the Cowboys? Eh. If the Falcons are a passing team that likes to run, the Cowboys are a running team that likes to pass. Tony Romo forgets that sometimes but over the course of a season he remembers more than he forgets, so the ‘Boys’ posse of receivers has plenty of time to work on their Terrell Owens impersonations.
Jordan Shipley to the Bengals? Eh eh. If he had gone to the Pats you’d think, “Hmmm … Wes Welker.” With the Bengals you think, “Hmmm … Peter Warrick.”
Jahvid Best to the Lions? Good. Matthew Stafford to Calvin Johnson works only as a counterpoint to Kevin Smith or someone getting 3.3 per carry. Smith’s in rehab. Best has the chance to be that someone.
Andrew Quarless to the Packers? Also good. One can envision a three-tight-end set with Quarless, Jermichael Finley, and Donald Lee on third-and-goal from the two, where the Packers never, ever run it unless they want to back it up to the five for a more makeable field goal.
Ryan Matthews to the Chargers? The Chargers certainly need it to work. Ever since Marion Butts the Chargers have relied on a dynamic running game to set up the pass. Philip Rivers, Vincent Jackson, and Antonio Gates are simply not good enough to turn that dynamic inside-out, and Norv Turner, who wears the offensive-genius label like a pair of Jimmy Choos, isn’t coach enough to create an offense where it might happen.
Toby Gerhart to the Vikings? Much better. The fallacy is that when Brett Favre arrived the Vikings stopped being a running team and became a passing team. The truth is they were still a running team; they were simply worse at it with Favre at QB. Protecting Brett Favre from being sacked is a full-time job. (Protecting Brett Favre from himself is impossible. Bah-dum-DUM.) Ever since he woke up with Liz Taylor’s ankles Favre moves like he has 10 pounds of Mississippi mud sucking at each foot. It’s difficult for a pro O-line to block for that and then crank it into hyperdrive and kick out the middle linebacker so AP can find a seam before he lays the pigskin on the hallowed plastic of the Humpdome. Gerhart can act like Brett Favre’s Depends, and he can also kick out his own middle linebacker. Until a mobile quarterback arrives in Minnesota (ooooh … Jake Locker) Gerhart is the next best thing.
In general, any player is a fantasy value – this is important, hence the italics -- when he makes a team better at what it already does well. Scan the transactions and draft lists and see which players fit that description. There are your fantasy sleepers.
So to return to the intro for the outro, the thing you really have to understand about football teams is that 95 percent of the time they add new personnel to complement their existing personnel, not to take them in an entirely different direction. And nothing, not even the freest days of free agency, can change that.
Like most health-stuff companies, we have a corporate mission statement. It goes something like this: “We believe dum-de-dum that people should be healthy dum-de-dum, and so we strive to provide solutions dum-de-dum for their … uh … health.” That statement has always bothered me, and not simply because it positions health as a problem that we could somehow solve. I’ve always believed we should come right out and say, “We want to be the best health-stuff provider on earth, because if we are then everyone wins – providers, organizations, and patients.”
Football teams have mission statements, too, and like my health-stuff mission statement they sound like George W. Bush reading from Finnegan’s Wake. And they’re not published anywhere; you have to divine them from coaches’ and GMs’ statements. That’s a good thing, too, because they almost always sound like this: “We supply offensive and defensive solutions for … uh … offense and defense. We run to set up the pass and pass to set up the run and rush seven and drop eight back in coverage.”
Just like my health-stuff company, football teams are the victims of fuzzy thinking, of a mission as keenly focused as a cassette from Osama bin Laden. Again, what is wrong with saying, “We are the Chicago Bears, and we run the football. We have run the football for 90 years, and we will keep running the football. Our linemen will smash your linemen in the mouth, because that’s what Bulldog Turner did”?
The reason why football teams should come right out and say it is that they come right out and do it. Chicago runs. Arizona throws. There’s really nothing to be gained for a football team to deny its destiny, which is why making Mike Martz the Bears’ O-coordinator is the most ludicrous move since Reagan made James Watt steward of the environment. So Mike Martz is going to install an Astroturf offense on a team that plays in Soldier Field and whose best receiver would be sixth-string in Indianapolis? Is he really? Let’s see it in late November, with the wind screaming off Lake Michigan and Jay Cutler screaming at Devin Hester to catch something for a change, and Mike Martz screaming at Devin Aromashudu because that’s what Mike Martz does. Marty Schottenheimer and Chicago are a match made in heaven, but it’ll never happen because it would require the Bears owning up to their identity, and only successful teams do that.
Believe it or not, there is a use for this rambling prologue: fantasy football. Now, saying something has utility for fantasy football is not like saying something has utility in corralling an oil slick. It won’t help you drill a hole in a plank without splinters or make a flan that doesn’t taste of charcoal. But it is a wet match in that insignificant mildewed corner of the basement storage room of the sports world.
Enough. As a fantasy footballer, if you had the thought after the Rams drafted Sam Bradford, “Yeah, baby! More touches for Donnie Avery!”, put your league entry fee in an envelope and send it to me, because it’ll wind up here eventually. Instead of thinking conventionally (hotshot collegian = hot rookie) you should be moving Steven Jackson five notches up your draft ladder because all the Rams know how to do right now is run, and Sam Bradford will not teach them to pass. This is not Matt Ryan being drafted by the Falcons and given Roddy White on the right, Brian Finneran on the left and Alge Crumpler down the middle. This is a skinny, bum-shouldered QB who feasted like a 12-pound newborn on leaky Ds in the Big 12 being dropped into an offense with one real talent (Jackson), an O-line full of consumptives and a group of receivers with the raw talent of Amy Winehouse and half as much discipline.
How about some others? How about Dez Bryant to the Cowboys? Eh. If the Falcons are a passing team that likes to run, the Cowboys are a running team that likes to pass. Tony Romo forgets that sometimes but over the course of a season he remembers more than he forgets, so the ‘Boys’ posse of receivers has plenty of time to work on their Terrell Owens impersonations.
Jordan Shipley to the Bengals? Eh eh. If he had gone to the Pats you’d think, “Hmmm … Wes Welker.” With the Bengals you think, “Hmmm … Peter Warrick.”
Jahvid Best to the Lions? Good. Matthew Stafford to Calvin Johnson works only as a counterpoint to Kevin Smith or someone getting 3.3 per carry. Smith’s in rehab. Best has the chance to be that someone.
Andrew Quarless to the Packers? Also good. One can envision a three-tight-end set with Quarless, Jermichael Finley, and Donald Lee on third-and-goal from the two, where the Packers never, ever run it unless they want to back it up to the five for a more makeable field goal.
Ryan Matthews to the Chargers? The Chargers certainly need it to work. Ever since Marion Butts the Chargers have relied on a dynamic running game to set up the pass. Philip Rivers, Vincent Jackson, and Antonio Gates are simply not good enough to turn that dynamic inside-out, and Norv Turner, who wears the offensive-genius label like a pair of Jimmy Choos, isn’t coach enough to create an offense where it might happen.
Toby Gerhart to the Vikings? Much better. The fallacy is that when Brett Favre arrived the Vikings stopped being a running team and became a passing team. The truth is they were still a running team; they were simply worse at it with Favre at QB. Protecting Brett Favre from being sacked is a full-time job. (Protecting Brett Favre from himself is impossible. Bah-dum-DUM.) Ever since he woke up with Liz Taylor’s ankles Favre moves like he has 10 pounds of Mississippi mud sucking at each foot. It’s difficult for a pro O-line to block for that and then crank it into hyperdrive and kick out the middle linebacker so AP can find a seam before he lays the pigskin on the hallowed plastic of the Humpdome. Gerhart can act like Brett Favre’s Depends, and he can also kick out his own middle linebacker. Until a mobile quarterback arrives in Minnesota (ooooh … Jake Locker) Gerhart is the next best thing.
In general, any player is a fantasy value – this is important, hence the italics -- when he makes a team better at what it already does well. Scan the transactions and draft lists and see which players fit that description. There are your fantasy sleepers.
So to return to the intro for the outro, the thing you really have to understand about football teams is that 95 percent of the time they add new personnel to complement their existing personnel, not to take them in an entirely different direction. And nothing, not even the freest days of free agency, can change that.
Tuesday, May 4, 2010
The Thing You Have To Understand About Football Teams, Vol. 1
The thing you have to understand about football teams is they are all creatures of habit. You can, with only as much thinking as it takes to dial up the Apples in Stereo on your iPod, figure out what a given pro football team will do. Not on the very next play, of course. (Well, maybe: 47 cross-trap. Correll Buckhalter loses three. There.) But over time, teams have tendencies, and they tend not to get away from those tendencies unless something cataclysmic happens, like Ahmad Rashad figuring out what those appendages on the ends of his arms are for.
Proof of this is everywhere. The Chicago Bears have been around for more than 90 years, and in only four seasons have they led the league in passing yards. Three of those seasons were Sid Luckman’s (and he had a bunch of second-place finishes in there, too); one was Billy Wade, when the Bears were hydrophobic and pass-happy and in the process of stinking up the joint so they could draft Gale Sayers – draft Gale Sayers so they could run the ball better, which is the lesson here. The Bears have been the league’s top running team 17 seasons, ranging from 1934 to their most recent title, in 1986. In the first NFL draft the Bears drafted seven linemen, so they could run the ball better and keep the other team from running. The Bears have nine linemen in the Hall of Fame, and five running backs. The Bears had the all-time career rushing leader. They had the league’s first 1,000-yard rusher. They had the first player to score seven TDs in a game. They had Bronko and the Galloping Ghost. Only once did they spend a really high draft pick on a throw-it-around guy, and then they didn’t know what they were in for with Sid Luckman. The reason why no one in the Bears’ war room has ever said, “Hey, why not that Jeff George guy?” (except when George was so far gone that he was throwing 40-yard out patterns to the Chicago Tribune billboard) is because he doesn’t fit into the offense, and it would take too much to change the offense to fit him. And if it was that way last year it would be that way this year, and next year, and it just keeps rolling.
The Bears are a running team. On the other hand, the Colts have always thrown it around, even when Kelly Holcomb was doing the throwing. The Rams have thrown it around excepting for two times: during the Ground Chuck days, when they ran the ball in the most excruciatingly direct way possible so that to the casual football fan it looked like God was punishing Los Angelinos for being so wanton, and now, when there is truly nothing else they can do. The Cards throw it around. The 49ers throw it around, which makes Alex Smith so painful for them. The Lions run it. At his best Herman Moore was a Barry Sanders’ beard, a decoy who caught 100 balls a year. (Given that, the Millions’ decision to fritter away draft picks on the Williams boys and Charles Rogers ranks higher on The Dumb List than even The Men Who Stare At Goats.) The Eagles run it. The Bills run it. The Bengals run it. The Vikings … eeesh. The Vikings have mostly always run it, but they have these spells. If you’re a Viking fan you understand.
This stuff can change, but it takes an exceptionally talented player who sticks around a long time to make it change. Earl Campbell changed the Oilers from a Blanda/Dickey/Pastorini throw-it-around team to a running team. Even Brett Favre at his gunslinging worst couldn’t not hand the ball to Earl Campbell. Speaking of Favre, he made running far more optional in Green Bay, in part because he outlasted all the running backs. When Brett Favre is your constant you throw the ball. And when an orderly transition is made to Aaron Rodgers you keep throwing, because you have Donald Driver and Greg Jennings out wide and Ryan Grant in the backfield, and guys like Mark Tauscher in the line whose idea of downfield blocking is falling forward.
The same thing works on defense, and the reasons why are more inscrutable. You’d think that since defense is largely reactive that teams’ defensive tendencies would be based on the teams they play, but that happens less often than you’d think. What happens is this: When the Buffalo Bills had Bruce Smith they drafted personnel complementary to Bruce Smith and created their schemes around the fact that they had Bruce Smith. The D-backs played tight and the safeties played for wounded-duck interceptions; linebackers who could cover were chosen over linebackers who could rush the passer; interior D-linemen who could occupy blockers were tabbed over penetrating D-tackles. And once Buffalo got all these pieces together to complement Bruce Smith … Bruce Smith split the blanket.
What do you do? You can’t dump everyone because you dumped Bruce Smith, though sending Gabe Northern packing would be a bit of lagniappe. The shining path is to take Phil Hansen, Ted Washington, John Holecek, Sam Cowart, et. al. and give them another pass rusher to play with. So the Bills did exactly that and inserted Marcellus Wiley, who did a fine Bruce Smith impersonation, and the defense rolled on. When Washington vacated his half-acre lot in 2000 the Bills plugged the hole with Pat Williams and Shawn Price – two people, in part because of Washington’s extreme avoirdupois but also because new coach Gregg Williams installed a 4-3 though the Bills’ personnel was still mostly the Bruce Smith 3-4 gang. The result smelled like chicken ranch. The team that was 13-3 in Smith’s last year and 8-8 with Marcellus Wiley went 3-13. That’s nothing against Pat Williams and Shawn Price. That’s a team being taken against its essential defensive tendencies too soon. And Rob Johnson playing like an idiot.
If teams could turn over all their offensive or defensive personnel at once it would be easy for them to change tendencies. But swapping out players one at a time is like changing a string of Christmas lights from red to green by replacing only the lights that burn out. It takes a long time, and it looks like compost in the process. It’s totally reasonable to get a third of the way in and decide, “What the heck. I like red lights better anyhow,” and never make the change.
If you want more you'll have to wait for Vol. 2.
Proof of this is everywhere. The Chicago Bears have been around for more than 90 years, and in only four seasons have they led the league in passing yards. Three of those seasons were Sid Luckman’s (and he had a bunch of second-place finishes in there, too); one was Billy Wade, when the Bears were hydrophobic and pass-happy and in the process of stinking up the joint so they could draft Gale Sayers – draft Gale Sayers so they could run the ball better, which is the lesson here. The Bears have been the league’s top running team 17 seasons, ranging from 1934 to their most recent title, in 1986. In the first NFL draft the Bears drafted seven linemen, so they could run the ball better and keep the other team from running. The Bears have nine linemen in the Hall of Fame, and five running backs. The Bears had the all-time career rushing leader. They had the league’s first 1,000-yard rusher. They had the first player to score seven TDs in a game. They had Bronko and the Galloping Ghost. Only once did they spend a really high draft pick on a throw-it-around guy, and then they didn’t know what they were in for with Sid Luckman. The reason why no one in the Bears’ war room has ever said, “Hey, why not that Jeff George guy?” (except when George was so far gone that he was throwing 40-yard out patterns to the Chicago Tribune billboard) is because he doesn’t fit into the offense, and it would take too much to change the offense to fit him. And if it was that way last year it would be that way this year, and next year, and it just keeps rolling.
The Bears are a running team. On the other hand, the Colts have always thrown it around, even when Kelly Holcomb was doing the throwing. The Rams have thrown it around excepting for two times: during the Ground Chuck days, when they ran the ball in the most excruciatingly direct way possible so that to the casual football fan it looked like God was punishing Los Angelinos for being so wanton, and now, when there is truly nothing else they can do. The Cards throw it around. The 49ers throw it around, which makes Alex Smith so painful for them. The Lions run it. At his best Herman Moore was a Barry Sanders’ beard, a decoy who caught 100 balls a year. (Given that, the Millions’ decision to fritter away draft picks on the Williams boys and Charles Rogers ranks higher on The Dumb List than even The Men Who Stare At Goats.) The Eagles run it. The Bills run it. The Bengals run it. The Vikings … eeesh. The Vikings have mostly always run it, but they have these spells. If you’re a Viking fan you understand.
This stuff can change, but it takes an exceptionally talented player who sticks around a long time to make it change. Earl Campbell changed the Oilers from a Blanda/Dickey/Pastorini throw-it-around team to a running team. Even Brett Favre at his gunslinging worst couldn’t not hand the ball to Earl Campbell. Speaking of Favre, he made running far more optional in Green Bay, in part because he outlasted all the running backs. When Brett Favre is your constant you throw the ball. And when an orderly transition is made to Aaron Rodgers you keep throwing, because you have Donald Driver and Greg Jennings out wide and Ryan Grant in the backfield, and guys like Mark Tauscher in the line whose idea of downfield blocking is falling forward.
The same thing works on defense, and the reasons why are more inscrutable. You’d think that since defense is largely reactive that teams’ defensive tendencies would be based on the teams they play, but that happens less often than you’d think. What happens is this: When the Buffalo Bills had Bruce Smith they drafted personnel complementary to Bruce Smith and created their schemes around the fact that they had Bruce Smith. The D-backs played tight and the safeties played for wounded-duck interceptions; linebackers who could cover were chosen over linebackers who could rush the passer; interior D-linemen who could occupy blockers were tabbed over penetrating D-tackles. And once Buffalo got all these pieces together to complement Bruce Smith … Bruce Smith split the blanket.
What do you do? You can’t dump everyone because you dumped Bruce Smith, though sending Gabe Northern packing would be a bit of lagniappe. The shining path is to take Phil Hansen, Ted Washington, John Holecek, Sam Cowart, et. al. and give them another pass rusher to play with. So the Bills did exactly that and inserted Marcellus Wiley, who did a fine Bruce Smith impersonation, and the defense rolled on. When Washington vacated his half-acre lot in 2000 the Bills plugged the hole with Pat Williams and Shawn Price – two people, in part because of Washington’s extreme avoirdupois but also because new coach Gregg Williams installed a 4-3 though the Bills’ personnel was still mostly the Bruce Smith 3-4 gang. The result smelled like chicken ranch. The team that was 13-3 in Smith’s last year and 8-8 with Marcellus Wiley went 3-13. That’s nothing against Pat Williams and Shawn Price. That’s a team being taken against its essential defensive tendencies too soon. And Rob Johnson playing like an idiot.
If teams could turn over all their offensive or defensive personnel at once it would be easy for them to change tendencies. But swapping out players one at a time is like changing a string of Christmas lights from red to green by replacing only the lights that burn out. It takes a long time, and it looks like compost in the process. It’s totally reasonable to get a third of the way in and decide, “What the heck. I like red lights better anyhow,” and never make the change.
If you want more you'll have to wait for Vol. 2.
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